Heavy rain today - sunshine for the weekend in Montreal

NOAA water vapor radar image showing deep moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico into Quebec this morning.

 The digital rain gauge is showing 39.2mm as of 7am this morning here on L'Ile Perrot, most of that falling overnight. The NOAA water vapor radar image above shows the trail of deep moisture running from the Gulf of Mexico northward into southern Ontario and the St. Lawrence Valley. A special weather statement for upwards of 50mm (2 inches) of rainfall is in effect for Montreal. Judging by the fact we are already at 40mm we may see a little more than that. Meanwhile heavy rain warnings are in effect across eastern Ontario. Many locations have reported over 50mm in the last 24 hours. Trenton received 76.2mm (3 inches) in just the last 24 hours. Flooding was reported in the Niagara Region and along the north shore of Lake Erie. Severe weather with hail, flooding and wind damage occurred from Ohio to the middle Atlantic south into the Carolinas.

Flooding from heavy rain in southern Ontario on Wednesday. (Photo: Twitter @ErieMedia)

SUNNY WEEKEND
The rain has come in waves along with embedded thunderstorms, and that will continue across the entire region today. Temperatures are chilly this morning at 14C but should warm to 20C today under the clouds and rain. On Friday a cold front will produce more showers with thunderstorms. Skies should clear out Saturday morning with sunshine for the weekend. Temperatures will range from 21 to 24C for the weekend in Montreal.

Rain & thunderstorms to end the week

A sign of hope on a very difficult day in Moncton, New Brunswick on Tuesday. Thoughts and prayers to all involved.(CBC Nova Scotia via Twitter)

A moist weather system from the central US will help draw rain and thunderstorms northward across the eastern US and into the St. Lawrence Valley for the balance of the week. This morning we have sunshine in Montreal with warm temperatures in the high teens. The sun will rapidly begin to fade behind increasing clouds today as we reach 24C (76F). Radar shows rain and thunderstorms across Pennsylvania and Ohio moving into southwest Ontario this morning. The area of precipitation will slowly move into Quebec by this evening. Rain could be heavy at times with slow moving showers and storms. The same system on Tuesday produced flash floods across Metro Washington D.C. as well as portions of Maryland, so there is a history of flooding.

Environment Canada has issued heavy rain warnings for 50-70mm (2-3 inches) of rain across the Ottawa Valley as well as Eastern Ontario. In Quebec we currently have a special weather statement with no active warnings at this time. Forecast amounts here are in the 25-50mm range (1-2 inches) over the next three days. The good news is I think the system will be east of our region by Saturday morning with just clouds left to clear out. The weekend should be fair with warmer temperatures for Montreal, southwest Quebec and Ontario.

Lightning Safety Week in Canada is June 9-15
When the thunder ROARS go INDOORS!
Lightning kills an average of 10 Canadians each year while injuring over 150. I am preparing a blog post for tomorrow featuring more information and ways to stay safe during summer storms.

Wet week ahead for Montreal

What a spectacular weekend and Monday in Montreal and across the St. Lawrence Valley. The weather was ideal, perhaps a little too hot, for the  Formula 1 Grand Prix du Canada over the weekend. Temperatures were very close to 30C (86F) both Saturday and Sunday, dropping slightly to 27C (81F) on Monday.

This morning we have a northeast breeze along with clouds and showers that are keeping things cooler. I have 16C (61F) here on L'Ile Perrot, quite a bit cooler than last evening. A weak frontal system will bring showers this morning followed by afternoon clearing. Temperatures in Montreal will eventually make it to 25C (77F) once the clouds clear. Tonight should be fair with lows down to 15C (59F). On Wednesday southern Quebec will begin to feel the effects of a frontal boundary that stretches from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. Deep moisture will flow northward with clouds increasing, we can expect the chance for showers and thunderstorms by late in the day. Temperatures will make it up to 25C once again. The showers will become a steady rain late in the day and into Thursday. Rain may be heay at times with in excess of 25mm (1 inch) possible. Friday looks wet as well with clouds and showers. The good news once again is that the weekend looks great. If so this will be the third in a row with sunshine and warm temperatures. Seems like a great way to start the summer, rainy during the week, sunshine on the weekends.

The most important weather forecast in history - D-Day 1944

Canadian Troops landing on the Normandy Coast, June 6, 1944

Friday is the 70th Anniversary of one of the most important dates of the 20th Century, D- Day, June 6, 1944. The invasion of the Allied Forces at Normandy would be the start of the liberation of mainland Europe and the eventual end of World War II. On this day, I want to express my gratitude to all those brave men and women who paid and continue to pay the ultimate sacrifice so that we can enjoy our freedom. Without them, none of this is possible.

It would be one of the most important weather forecasts ever delivered throughout history. Nearly 160,000 Allied Troops, including 14,000 Canadians, would be relying on its accuracy. The entire free world had a interest in this forecast being correct. It was the forecast for the English Channel during D-Day, the Normandy invasion, in June 1944.

Supreme Commander of the NATO forces, General Dwight D. Eisenhower needed nearly ideal weather conditions to launch the invasion. The perfect day would have a full moon, low tides, clear skies, light winds and low seas. Two such periods matched the low tide scenario, but only one had the light of a full moon, June 5, 6 or 7, 1944.

Destroyed military equipment lies in the surf at Juneau Beach on D-Day, June 6, 1944

The prognostication fell on the backs of a team of forecasters from the UK and the USA, sprinkled with a few other Allied forecasters. The forecast team was lead by British meteorologist James Martin Stagg. Stagg lead three teams of forecasters who would argue back and forth for days testing each others abilities and theories to come up with the right day for the invasion of the Normandy Coast. The safety of the troops and the effectiveness of an entire campaign lay at stake.

It was up to the forecasters to give the best idea as to which 24-hour period would be best to launch the invasion. Early forecasts predicted stormy weather for the time frame in question. Eisenhower wanted a Beaufort Scale wind of 4 or less to give the go ahead. Force 4 winds are 13-18mph with 3.5 to 5 foot seas. Anything greater than that would swamp the landing craft and sink vital equipment. The challenges were many, so the hope was to give the landing forces the best chance possible. Any type of cloud cover would hinder air support and limit paratroopers.

American Troops landing at Omaha Beach, June 6, 1944

The massive Allied Force of nearly 200,000 troops, with over 6500 ships and hundreds of aircraft, began staging as early as June 3 in what had been up to that point a decent stretch of weather. That was about to change, as a series of low pressure systems and fronts travelling across the North Atlantic was about to bring very poor weather. By June 4th, the weather had turned with strong winds, low visibility, high surf and heavy rain. Stagg approached Eisenhower with his advice to delay the invasion and despite the US forecasters insisting the weather was acceptable for an assault, the General decided to wait 24 hours. Thousands of troops remained in place on ships in rough seas for an additional day. The armada was deployed instead in the early hours of June 5 for the 17-hour trip across the English Channel and a June 6 sunrise assault. Despite the 24 hour wait the weather was less than ideal with 5 foot seas, but a vast improvement over the 6 or 8 foot seas and poor visibility during the previous 24 hours. To show how devastating it could have been, even the lower wave action swamped several of the landing craft and left at least 2 dozen tanks submerged at Omaha Beach alone. This would lead to little ground support for Infantry, and massive casualties to the US forces.

The Germans were caught by surprise, as their forecasters had told German command the bad weather would last well into June and thus prevent any invasion. The rest as they say is history with the invasion succeeding but unfortunately at a terrible cost with as many as 10,000 casualties (dead & injured), including 1074 Canadians (359 Canadian deaths). Eleven months later Germany would surrender. You can never downplay the importance of D-Day in bringing World War II to an end. One can only imagine how much worse the invasion would have gone had Eisenhower decided to leave on the 4th while the cold front whipped up heavy rain and strong winds with very highs seas and low visibility. Stagg’s forecast to travel in the relative good weather between low pressure systems on June 5, 1944 no doubt lead to the success of the invasion, as well as saving countless lives.

By the time the initial battle came to an end, the sun was shinning along the Normandy coastline.

Strong thunderstorms produce flooding - power outages

Heavy thunderstorms produced flooding on the West Island Tuesday afternoon. (Global TV)

A line of strong thunderstorms slowly crept across the Island of Montreal yesterday afternoon with strong winds and torrential rain. I measured 33.6mm of rain on L'Ile Perrot in less than two hours but as much as 47mm fell in Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue and across the West Island. It was a little too much water for storm sewers and flooding resulted. Several roads were closed temporarily while the water receded. A couple of trees were knocked down as well in Pointe Claire and Hydro Quebec reported nearly 30,000 customers without power. The temperature managed a muggy 28C before the storms hit around 1:30pm.

FUNNEL CLOUD?
The ragged base of the storm cloud had some scud on the bottom (wind driven cloud). This is often mistaken for a funnel cloud which is being reported today on many media outlets as well as social media. I did not observe a funnel cloud on my side of the airport, just scud, however information provided to Environment Canada suggest one may have occurred near Trudeau Airport around 2:30pm. It did not reach the ground, and no damage or rotation was reported.

Record high on Monday for Montreal

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH metro Montreal for the day today for strong thunderstorms capable of heavy rain.

It has been a rather warm and muggy 24 hours in southern Quebec with temperatures in the low 30's on Monday afternoon. The warmth included a record 30.4C (87F) in both Ottawa and Montreal breaking the record high of 30C set back in 1970. Overnight lows remained very warm between 19C and 22C (66-72F). Today the region is expecting a cold front to slice through the muggy air this afternoon producing widespread showers and thunderstorms. I am not expecting severe weather with the storms today, that is hail or very strong winds, but the rain will be heavy. Some of the storms may produce upwards of 25-50mm (1-2 inches) of rainfall locally which could lead to some flash flooding in poor drainage areas. A watch or warning may be needed later today for portions of eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec. Watch my Twitter feed for more details. Some sunshine may push us up to a muggy high of 27C (81F) today.

Once the front clears the region we can expect cooler temperatures on Wednesday, 22C, with showers and unsettled weather into Friday. The weekend is expected to be sunny both days with warm high temperatures of 27 to 30C (80-85F) both days.

Welcome to Meteorological Summer

Summer has arrived, at least according to meteorologists. Officially the summer solstice is June 21st, but the weather really starts to warm up quickly as of June 1st. Such was the case in Montreal this past weekend with much warmer temperatures in the middle 20's and total sunshine. It was a near perfect weekend. The good weather will continue into the start of the week, with even warmer temperatures today, along with an increase in humidity. We have an outside shot at the 1970 record high of 30C today, as we forecast highs near 29C (85F) for metro Montreal. Clouds will increase tonight, but it will remain warm and muggy with lows around 20C. Tuesday through the balance of this week will feature a very slow moving frontal system with cloudy skies along with frequent showers and thunderstorms. It will be warm on Tuesday in the middle 20's dropping to around 20C by Wednesday. The good news is that at this point next weekend looks sunny and warm.

With May over we can take a brief look at the numbers. It was a relatively warm month, even though it really did not feel like it. The average temperature was 14.4C at Trudeau Airport in Montreal, above the 20 year average of 13.4C. The highest temperature was 28.2C with the coolest 3.2C. Rainfall was measured at 95.6mm, the normal is 81.2mm. I had very similar stats at my home on L'Ile Perrot with extremes of 30.2C and 1.2C with an average temperature of 14.4C and almost identical rainfall of 95.8mm.

Summer ice on Lake Superior. (NWS Marquette)

Here is some food for thought as we start summer, there is a blizzard warning in effect for Resolute, NWT today. At 6am this Monday, it was -4C, snowing with a visibility of 0.2km and 68km/h winds. The warning states to avoid all travel! On Lake Superior, ice continues to hug the southern shoreline. Despite the warmer weather huge chunks of ice are prevalent is many bays. The photos above are from the National Weather Service in Marquette Michigan.