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Thursday, 6 November 2014

Another snowstorm to miss Montreal

From AccuWeather.com
The first flakes of the season will likely fall in Montreal over the next 24 hours but it could have been much worse. Low pressure developing over the Great Lakes will move just off the coast of New Jersey later today and then lift northeast across Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine. The system will deepen like the storm last weekend, but remain far enough east to only give us a glancing blow. If you are keeping count that is 0-2 for Montreal. They are not so lucky in New Brunswick and the Gaspe where the same regions hammered by last weeks storm will receive another 15-25cm (6-10 inches) of wet snow. Snow will also fall Friday along the St. Lawrence Valley northeast from Quebec City. It will be windy with blowing snow, so keep this in mind if your travels take you towards Quebec City, the Gaspe, Lower North Shore or Atlantic Canada.

For Montreal, a cold rain will develop late today and change over to a mix of wet snow overnight and taper off to flurries on Friday. Most valley locations will receive little if any accumulations at this time. Upper elevations of the Eastern Townships may have 5cm (up to 2 inches) by Friday morning. Just a few flurries are forecast for Ottawa and eastern Ontario. Moderate snow will fall in the Adirondacks as well as the Green and White Mountains, where 5-20cm (2-8 inches) is possible tonight and Friday. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for those regions. Winds will be strong in all regions, out of the northeast then northwest 30-50km/h. Temperatures will be turning colder, 7C (45F) today for Montreal, 1C (33F) overnight and only 3C (39F) Friday and Saturday.

Looking ahead to next week the coldest air of the season is poised to head south across the Great Lakes and into Ontario and Quebec. Some snow is possible next week in Montreal as well.

Monday, 3 November 2014

Major storm hits Gaspe - cold weather for Montreal

Over 30cm of snow fell along the Maine, New Brunswick border and into the Gaspe region of Quebec on Sunday.
(Via Twitter)
 It is a chilly morning in Montreal to start this work week, the coldest so far this season. Temperatures dropped to between 0 and -2C (28-32F) around the region, not too bad for early November, but a gusty north wind up to 40km/h is making it feel much colder. Windchill values are in the -5 to -7C range. It will warm up today under sunny skies with highs close to 6C (43F). Winds will however remain gusty as strong low pressure continues to lift north across extreme eastern Quebec and Labrador. That storm brought lots of wind to Montreal over the weekend but no precipitation.

The Nor'Easter brought heavy rain and snow to New England and Atlantic Canada with some areas receiving over 30cm (1 foot) of snow. The heavy wet snow brought down trees and power lines plunging thousands of residents into the dark across northern Maine and western New Brunswick into the Gaspe region.Over 135,000 customers were in the dark in northern Maine around Bangor, where 1 foot of snow fell. Hydro crews from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are on the way this morning to help their neighbours restore power in Maine. In Quebec about 2500 customers have no power this morning, with almost 14,000 in New Brusnwick.

Snow even fell in Foxborough, Massachusetts home of the New England Patriots. Crews scrambled to clear the field before the NFL game against the Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon. (NFL.com)
Travel is not being advised across central portions of the Gaspe north onto the lower North Shore of Quebec this morning where 30-50cm (12-20 inches) is expected before the snow ends later today. On Sunday, 23cm fell at Bathurst, New Brunswick, with 30cm at Perth Andover. St. John's, Newfoundland reported 59mm of rain while Cape Race had 71.5mm of rain. The strongest wind was at Wreckhouse with a gust to 107km/h (66mph).

Saturday, 1 November 2014

Snow for Gaspe & New Brunswick - storm to miss Montreal

Rare snow on the pumpkins this morning across western North and South Carolina. Photo Twitter@EdPiotrowski
A strong Atlantic coast storm is developing this morning east of Delaware and will move north towards Nova Scotia on Sunday. Warnings have bee posted from the middle Atlantic states into Atlantic Canada. Montreal will only be affected by the extreme western flank of clouds from the system as well a gusty northerly winds up to 50km/h. Clouds will prevail today with clearing Sunday. Temperatures will be at 5C (41F) with overnight lows near -1C (30F).

As you move east of Quebec City snow will develop tonight from south to north and increase in intensity the closer you get to the New Brunswick border. Environment Canada has issued heavy snowfall and winter storm warnings for portions of New Brunswick and the Gaspe. Areas of northern interior Maine, New Brunswick and the Gaspe Peninsula can expect 15-30cm (6-12 inches) of heavy wet snow by late Sunday. All the snow will be driven by northeast winds up to 70km/h. The snow will tapper off late Sunday as the low moves towards Newfoundland. Temperatures will be around the freezing point for the event in the warned regions. In Nova Scotia and PEI heavy rain is forecast along with strong winds.

Some flurries or very light snow may edge into the Eastern Townships, northern Vermont and the Quebec City area late tonight and early Sunday. The core of the coldest air along with moisture dove south on Halloween deep into the southern US. A rare early season snow is on the ground this morning across portions of western North and South Carolina, northern Georgia and Tennessee. The developing Nor'Easter is also producing coastal flooding from the Outer Banks to Cape Cod. Light snow even fell in Toronto last night before Montreal!

Friday, 31 October 2014

Dry Halloween expected for Montreal

Schultz image
It looks like the weather will be decent for trick or treating in Montreal. Low pressure developing over the Great Lakes will produce light rain and snow for portions of Ontario today including Toronto. While it will be a cloudy, cool day in the St. Lawrence Valley, any shower activity should stay away from metro Montreal until after midnight. Temperatures are chilly today, at 0C (32F) right now here on L'Ile Perrot. Look for a high near 7C (45F) with temperatures around 5C (41F) during the trick or treating.

The Great Lakes low will move south of Montreal and off the Atlantic seaboard by Saturday where it will combine with another disturbance and develop a potent Nor'Easter. This storm system will guarantee a windy, chilly and gray weekend for Montreal, but no snow expected at this time as it remains well offshore. The snow will be confined to the Gaspe region of Quebec as well as interior Maine and New Brunswick. A stray snowflake or two may develop over the Townships late Saturday.

Have a safe and Happy Halloween!

Thursday, 30 October 2014

First potential snow of the season to miss Montreal

The stalls were full and customer traffic was steady all day Wednesday at Gordons in N.D.G. The annual rush to get snow tires on and have the car tuned before the snow flies is well underway. Customers were lined up before the 7am opening on Wednesday morning and it will be the same for the next month. (ValleyWX Photo)
It looks like our first shot at snow for the 2014-2015 season will just miss Montreal. A cold upper level low will dive south from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley on Friday before moving off the middle Atlantic coast Saturday. This system will then develop into a strong Nor'Easter and move towards Atlantic Canada by Sunday. The path of the low will keep it well offshore, far enough to spare Montreal from any significant weather. However, if you have friends or family in interior New Brunswick, they may see a decent snowstorm on Saturday night with rain changing to wet snow. The same is possible across eastern interior New England depending on the track of the low.

At this time the weather looks grey and cool in Montreal with perhaps a stray shower for trick or treating on Halloween night. Temperatures will be around 5C (41F), so dress the ghosts and goblins up well. Until then expect mostly cloudy skies, typical October weather, with a cool gusty wind. The high temperature today will be near 8C (47F). The weekend forecast will feature clouds on Saturday with a cold north wind gusting to 40km/h and perhaps a few showers or a stray snowflake in the mountains, highs only near 5C (41F). Sunday will be partly sunny and cold with highs near 4C (39F). Overnight lows this weekend will range from 0 to -3C (26-32F), so frost and a freeze will occur.

Tuesday, 28 October 2014

The first snowflakes of the season possible by late Halloween night....very scary!

There could be snow on the pumpkins of southern Quebec by Saturday morning.
 The first snowflakes of the season for Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley may be in the air as early as Halloween night or Saturday morning. Low pressure is forecast to develop from a rather complex weather setup with a cold rain late Friday in the region and perhaps ending as a period of snow. The system will evolve along the east coast which means areas of the Townships and Eastern Vermont have the greatest threat for accumulating snow. The coldest air of the fall will be drawn down behind the system. Temperatures will be mild most of this week but drop on Friday down to the freezing point by late in the evening, even here in metro Montreal. Overnight lows into Saturday morning will be down to -3C, so anything that does fall from the sky will be snow. I am hopeful we will make through the Trick or Treat period dry but cool.

We will have to monitor the systems development as the week moves along. Temperatures will only be 5C (41F) for a high on Halloween Friday with the low temperature dropping into the minus 3C (26F) range by Saturday morning. Frost or a hard freeze is likely this weekend everywhere. In any event the last week of October is always the time I head over to Gordons in N.D.G. to get the winter tires on and this year is no different. Time to put your winter preparations into to full gear, once we are on the other side of Halloween, we are at the mercy of the seasons.

Our clocks go back one hour this Sunday at 2am, another sure sign of winter!


Wednesday, 22 October 2014

The 60th Anniversary of Hurricane Hazel in Toronto

It is another chilly, raw morning in Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley. The current temperature is 7C (45F) but with a gusty northeast wind over 40km/h it feels much colder. A developing Nor'Easter, yes it is that time of year again, will push Atlantic moisture into southern Quebec on Thursday. It will be a very windy, rainy and raw day with the high around 8C (47F). No sunshine is expected before Sunday.


HURRICANE HAZEL 1954
This past October 18 was the 60th anniversary of the arrival of Hurricane Hazel in southern Ontario. Hazel developed in what was already a very busy hurricane season that summer/fall of 1954. 1954 was the first season that forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were using names to identify storms. The "H" storm formed in the open waters of the eastern Atlantic 50 miles east of Grenada on October 5 and began a two week journey into the Carolinas and eventually Ontario. The storm made landfall as a powerful category 4 hurricane along the North and South Carolina border with a devastating storm surge and 150mph winds. Hazel would kill 92 in the US as well as over 1000 in Haiti. But it was the unexpected ferocity with which she arrived in southern Ontario around midnight on October 18 that captured Canadians' attention from coast to coast. October 1954 was very wet in and around the GTA, and as they say in meteorology, timing is everything. And so it was with Hazel. Within 12 hours, the storm morphed from a tropical system to a rather intense post-tropical cyclone. Hazel arrived on already soaked ground with a deep intensifying atmospheric trough colliding with the storm. The result was torrents of rain along and around the Humber and Don River watersheds. The Highland Creek, Credit River, Humber, Don, Etobicoke and 16 mile creek would all overflow their banks by midnight on October 18. The forecast for Hazel put an emphasis on the wind, when in reality most of the strong gusts occurred across eastern Ontario and western Quebec. Instead heavy rain fell on the western GTA with 183mm at Toronto City, 127mm at Islington, 107mm in 12 hours at Malton (now Pearson Airport). An incredible 214mm fell in Snelgrove and Brampton including 90mm from 9pm to midnight on October 17, 1954. The result was absolutely catastrophic with a torrent of water racing down the Don and Humber Rivers washing away everything in sight, houses, cars, people. The Humber River from Brampton down to Lake Ontario rose over 10 feet in hours and flowed at an astonishing 1416 cubic metres per second. Hard hit Raymore Drive along the Humber River was washed away with 31 lives lost and over 40% of the street destroyed.

Swift and deadly flash flooding took 31 lives on Raymore Drive alone during Hazel in 1954. (Toronto Star)
The tragedy changed both the way we look at tropical systems in Canada and more importantly for the GTA, the way rivers and stream are monitored and how closely we build residential areas to them. The Toronto and Region Conservation Authority was established shortly after Hazel to help monitor that. Additionally the Dominion Weather Office, (predecessor to Environment Canada) took criticism for how the forecast was handled. In reality Fred Turnball, Head of the Dominion Weather Office at Macton, had predicted that morning  the rain from Hazel could very likely be the heaviest on record for Toronto. He was right, his message was just not delivered properly to the public. Even at that, it might not have made any difference for those who were sleeping in the wee hours of October 18, 1954 when the water came rushing through with such speed and ferocity. In the end 81 people would die as a result of Hazel in Canada, including 5 firefighters from Etobicoke whose rig was washed away by the Humber River. Nearly 1900 were left homeless, and damages would exceed 125 million. You can read about the firefighters and other personal accounts at this link HAZEL.


hurricanehazel.ca Photo