Warmer temperatures start Monday for Montreal

Snow clearing crews across southern Quebec were kept busy again on Sunday moving aside 10-20cm of heavy wet snow. Lets hope this was the last time this season we will need the use of plows. (Valley Weather Photo)

The question posed to me on a daily basis now is when will we get spring, when will it get warmer? My answer has been soon, but with a disclaimer. This winter has been long leaving behind plenty of ice on the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River, and piles of snow all around the region. This will definitely slow the onset of warmer weather as the evaporating ice and snow will keep temperatures cooler and produce more cloud. We only managed 0C today in Montreal while places with sunshine like Toronto reached a warmer 6C, and Ottawa 3C.

A perfect example of our slow start to spring was the storm that swept across Quebec on Sunday. Montreal received between 10-15cm of wet snow in just a few hours. It was windy as well with gusts at Trudeau Airport close to 70km/h through the middle part of the day. Places just south of the US border reported rainfall. Just the extra degree or two in temperature difference in Montreal meant snow over rain. The good news is we have some milder air starting Monday with clearing skies by noon. Temperatures will respond most of this week under the warm April sun, reaching daytime highs of plus 6 to 8C (43 to 48F) in Montreal. Overnight lows will drop just below the freezing point between -2 and -4C (25 to 28F). The next chance for precipitation will come late Tuesday or Wednesday in the form of a few snowflakes or showers. More steady mixed precipitation is likely by next weekend.

Storm Update

Here is the latest information I have gathered on the snow forecast for tonight into Sunday. It appears the bulk of the moisture will remain across the border areas with New York and Vermont. This is typical with an east coast storm. Low pressure will move from the middle Atlantic towards Cape Cod and then into Atlantic Canada once again. Lots of rain and wet snow is forecast across New England and the Maritimes, so flooding may be an issue there. As far as Montreal and southern Quebec are concerned, snow will begin this evening and taper off on Sunday morning. Current indications are for 5-10cm of very wet snow from Montreal south to the border with 15-25cm in the Townships and Beauce. Current warnings include a winter storm warning for the Townships and a winter weather advisory for northern New York and Vermont. Temperatures will be mild today at 4C dropping to -2C tonight and back up to plus 1C on Sunday. Skies will clear by late in the day. Winds will be strong during the storm out of the northeast from 30-60km/h.

WARMER WEATHER
It appears temperatures will go above freezing for most of next week and perhaps beyond as April begins. Highs by the middle of the upcoming week will reach close to 10C. This may be the last appreciable snowfall for Montreal, only time will tell.

**See below for previous storm discussion.

More snow expected late Saturday for Montreal

This mornings snow sure put everyone in a bad mood in Montreal. I took more abuse today for being a weather nerd than I can remember since my high school days. Around 5cm of snow fell rapidly between 5 and 8am snarling morning traffic and adding to the frustrations of a long winter and late spring. The much advertised warm air was tempered by heavy rain most of the day with about 13mm here on L'Ile Perrot. That managed to keep temperatures in check with a high of only plus 3C (38F) which is still below normal. It is still raining tonight as a cold front moves across the St. Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will drop tonight to just below freezing as the front moves south of Montreal and into central New York state. We may see some brief sun on Saturday with a high of 4C (40F). Clouds will increase late in the day with a mix of rain and snow developing by evening.

WEEKEND STORM?
The aforementioned front will stall across New York state and become the focus for moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico. This sets up a difficult forecast for the weekend. Previous thinking was the front would move far enough south to leave us under high pressure with sunshine and mild air for the weekend. It does not look like that now. The front will remain close enough to draw moisture into southern Quebec. To add to this complicated forecast will be a developing low pressure over North Carolina that will move along the east coast. Both these features will combine to produce a period of wet snow and rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. The question is, will it be cold enough for accumulating snow? If it is, we may see 10-15cm of snow from Montreal into northern New York and the Eastern Townships by Sunday morning. Currently winter storm watches have been hoisted for the Townships and northern NY/Vermont.

As always I welcome any questions, comments or weather photos, which I will share with my readers.

White hurricane moves away from Maritimes - warmer soon

NOAA image of the "white hurricane" pounding Atlantic Canada. Montreal remained on the far western edge of the cloud shield with gusty north winds yesterday.

It basically was a white hurricane that pounded Atlantic Canada on Wednesday. Reports of 25-50cm of snow being blown around by winds either side of 100km/h all day and at times as high as 170km/h. Grand Etang on Cape Breton Island had a wind gust to 171km/h (106 mph). This remarkable storm wound up like a spinning top quickly with a central pressure all the way down to 955mb. For a time it was the strongest storm anywhere on the planet. This morning the precipitation has moves into the coastal waters as well as Newfoundland, but winds remain gusty with several reports to 90 and 100km/h. The Trans Canada Highway between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia was closed for most of the last 24 hours but has since opened. Visibility was near zero for most of the period but has started to improve very slowly. Prince Edward Island remains closed with roads blocked by 53cm of snow. The Confederate Bridge is still shut down. Most Island roads are impassable and all flights have been cancelled. Schools and businesses are shut for a second day. Power outages are widespread across the region with utilities working in less than ideal conditions to restore electricity. Newfoundland Power has warned that is could take several days to bring all customers back onto the grid.

All travel including Halifax public transit ground to a halt in the afternoon in dangerous weather with zero visibility. (Radio Canada)

MONTREAL WEATHER
The silver lining from all this is that warmer air is on the horizon for most of eastern Canada. It will not be tropical but high temperatures will nudge above 0C on Friday and into the middle single digits to perhaps 10C (50F) over the weekend form Ontario east into storm weary Atlantic Canada. After the cold this morning, -14C currently, we will have a high of -2C. Montreal will have a period of rain and snow mixed beginning this afternoon and persisting into Friday with perhaps 2-5cm. The weekend at this time looks dry for southern Quebec and mild between 7 and 9C (45-50F). There is another much weaker coastal system expected to move northeast on Sunday that could bring more snow or rain to portions of eastern Quebec, at this time passing to far east to affect Montreal.

Powerful Atlantic Ocean storm pounds Maritimes

Sea Dog Pub on Nantucket this morning. It is being battered by hurricane force winds and heavy snow. This weather is moving into Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. (Weather Nation Twitter Photo)

Montreal and most of Quebec remain on the periphery of a powerful ocean storm this morning. Montreal can expect a cold north wind up to 40km/h as well as some high cirrus clouds but nothing more. This classic Nor'Easter has undergone significant strengthening overnight bombing out, that is dropping 24mb of pressure in 24 hours. Actually it has deepened by 15mb in the last three hours alone. It is a classic storm, very strong for this time of year with winds approaching hurricane force along the coast of Massachusetts this morning.

Water vapor image of this classic ocean storm with a central pressure as low as 955mb forecast. (NOAA)

Most of the snow associated with this storm is occurring along the coast and offshore as far as New England is concerned. It is a different story in the Maritimes where blizzard warnings are up for all of Nova Scotia, PEI and portions of southern and eastern New Brunswick. The Gaspe region and Lower North Shore will have heavy snow and strong winds as well. Accumulations across Eastern Canada will range form 25-50cm (10-20 inches). Combined with the snow will be winds in the 100km/h range possibly as high as 150km/h over Cape Breton and then into coastal Newfoundland. Already this morning we are seeing wind reports up to 60-70 mph in coastal New England including Nantucket and Cape Cod. Needless to say travel disruptions, school closing and power outages are being reported across that region as well as into Atlantic Canada. Winds will increase dramatically in Nova Scotia over the next few hours.

Warming trend on the horizon for Montreal

Saturdays snowfall was heavy but thankfully of short duration, dumping 10-15cm of snow here on L'Ile Perrot, 
across Montreal and into the Ottawa Valley. (Valley Weather Photo)

We have an active week of weather ahead for many portions of the country but it will end with a definite warming trend and feeling like spring. Montreal had a rather quick but heavy snowfall on Saturday with close to 15cm of wet snow falling in just a few hours over most of the region including Cornwall and the Ottawa Valley. The snow started around 8am and was over by 2pm in Montreal with sunshine talking over for late in the day. The snow created the usual problems on Quebec roads with two major accidents affecting Highway 20 near Quebec City. The system was followed by very cold air and gusty winds for Sunday and that cold will prevail until Tuesday. Temperatures will be well below normal with lows near -18C and highs no better than -5C.

By late Tuesday a very strong low pressure area will form near the Carolina coast and race northeast towards Atlantic Canada. This will be an intense ocean storm remaining offshore of New England with high winds near hurricane force, heavy surf and snow. It looks like all of the weather associated with this storm will stay away from southern Quebec with just a few flurries and a gusty north wind expected. This will not be the case in Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick where a full fledged spring blizzard is likely on Wednesday. What this storm will do for all of us is create a major pattern shift with the polar jet lifting back north of Montreal and allowing some much needed mild air into the region. Temperatures by next weekend will go well above freezing to plus 8C with rain likely. This trend will continue into the first week of April with lots of melting expected. Lets hope we have seen the last of winter 2013-2014.

Snowfall Warning for Montreal

Snowfall warnings remain in effect along the St. Lawrence Valley from Montreal to Kingston today. Heavy snow with visibility down to under 1km is now falling in Cornwall and this will rapidly spread east into Montreal early this morning. Snow will be wet and heavy and taper off rapidly this afternoon. Look for a quick 10cm of snow for most places with as much as 15cm between Montreal and the US border. This will make road conditions very poor through the middle hours of the day with low visibility and icy roads. Temperatures will be near 0C (32F) today cooling off considerably tonight down to -12C. It will also turn windy tonight, out of the northwest at 30-50km/h with a few flurries.

On Sunday look for clearing skies, but temperatures will remain cold with daytime highs of -7C, well below the normal high of plus 5C. Most of the upcoming week looks quiet with lots of sunshine and a very slow warming trend that will see daytime highs finally go above freezing by late in the week.

COASTAL STORM
There is one glitch in the forecast and that is on Wednesday. Computer models have a very large and intense coastal low forming over the open waters of the Atlantic and tracking into the Maritimes. It will bring a very strong storm to Atlantic Canada and possibly coastal New England but at this time looks to travel well south and east of southern Quebec. It will need to be monitored in case the track shifts to the west.