Heavy rain expected in southern Quebec

Heavy rain is producing major flooding along the Gulf Coasts of Florida and Alabama. 
Above: Downtown Mobile, Alabama from Twitter - Casey Toner - AI.com

The pesky low pressure area that has been causing so much deadly weather across the US is still slowly moving east from the Great Lakes. The system produced another day of strong tornadoes across the southern US stretching on Tuesday north towards the southern Great Lakes. Thunderstorms even fired up in southern Ontario yesterday afternoon with heavy rain and small hail. The death toll since the weekend is well over 30 now in the US. Yesterday a new twist was added to the storm with heavy, flooding rains across Florida and Alabama. Coastal areas of both states received an unbelievable 500mm of rain in less than 24 hours (over 20 inches). To put that into perspective, Montreal is under a heavy rain warning for the next 24 hours with 25-50mm possible, that is only 1-2 inches, and watch how hard it rains tonight. That will give you a good idea of the deluge that must have fallen in Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida Tuesday and last night. Needless to say widespread flooding has occurred with numerous water rescues and 1 fatality. Roads including Interstate 10 in Florida remain closed as flood waters slowly recede today.

HEAVY RAIN WARNING
More rain is in the forecast for the southern US and is stretching north towards southern Quebec. A deep plume of tropical moisture will overrun the east coast and St. Lawrence Valley tonight with rain and perhaps some thunder into Thursday morning before tapering off. A heavy rain warning is in effect for southern Quebec this afternoon and tonight. Normally warnings are issued for 50mm in less than 24 hours, but I believe in this case the concern for flooding in southern Quebec remains elevated, thus the warnings. Temperatures will be cool today in Montreal at 8C with northeast winds. Tonight cool and damp with lows of 5C. On Thursday, if we are lucky, a few sunny breaks and a warmer south wind may drive the temperature up into the high teens (19C) in Montreal.

Dozens of tornadoes hit the southern US

The damage was complete from a Sunday tornado in Mayflower, Arkansas. The three day onslaught of severe weather has left 29 dead. (CNN)

A slow moving low pressure area with a nasty trailing cold front along with all the right ingredients of wind, temperature and moisture continues to produce a multi-day severe weather outbreak across the southern US. On Monday it was Mississippi and Alabama that bore the brunt of severe thunderstorms and massive tornadoes. Nearly 3 dozen tornadoes were reported across the region and into northern Georgia and western Tennessee. Hardest hit yesterday were the communities of Louisville and Tupelo, MS where a mid afternoon tornado destroyed dozens of homes and businesses. A dozen fatalities were reported on Monday across the south bringing the death toll up to 29 since Friday night.

A Twitter photo showing the power of a tornado to throw debris into the air. This storm was in Baxter Springs, Kansas on Sunday afternoon.

I have a modest understanding of the mechanics and power of these deadly storms and even I have been astonished by the level of destruction. Entire downtown cores have been leveled and cars tossed into piles in fields. The storm that is causing all this severe weather is a slow moving low pressure area centered over the Great Lakes. The system has a trailing cold front slicing through unstable air across the southern US. Combine that with low level moisture blowing in from the Gulf of Mexico and you have all the ingredients necessary for a big outbreak. It will continue today with more tornadoes forecast from Mississippi east to the Atlantic Coast and severe thunderstorms as far north as the Great Lake states.

This system will control the weather in Montreal for the entire week with cool northeast winds and lots of moisture beginning tonight. Montreal and the entire region could see up to 40mm of rain by Friday. It will be cool with highs up to 13C and lows around 7C. Any thunderstorm activity at this time locally will be confined to southwest Ontario particularly London to Windsor.

Major tornado outbreak in southern US

A photo posted on Twitter by The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore of the 1/2 mile wide Vilonia, Arkansas tornado on the ground after dark last night, a very dangerous situation.

What had been a very slow start to the 2014 tornado season changed rapidly this past weekend. A series of long lasting and wide tornadoes swept across several communities from the southern Plains into the southeast US over the weekend. Until Friday night, the US had yet to report an EF3 tornado or stronger on the Enhanced Fujita scale (0-5), the latest of any reporting year since 1952. Late Friday strong thunderstorms produced an EF3 tornado in Washington County, North Carolina, killing an 11 month old boy, the first fatality of 2014. It was just the beginning of a long, violent weather weekend that will continue into today. Last evening a half mile wide tornado flattened the Little Rock northern suburb of Vilonia, Arkansas. The community of just over 3000 was nearly wiped off the map. The storms last night have killed at least 18 people with the death toll likely to climb as first responders sift through destroyed homes and businesses at first light this morning.

Another Twitter photo taken by a drone flying over Interstate 40 and showing tremendous damage to cars and trailers just outside Mayflower, Arkansas.

Greg Johnson of TornadoHunter.ca, a well respected storm chaser from Saskatchewan, has been on the ground all night in Vilonia helping to rescue survivors and administer first aid. He reports it is a difficult situation with many killed and injured and incredible, potentially EF5 damage. The storms continue this morning and will become intense later in the day across many of the same regions and expanding east. Tornadoes were also reported in Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri.

Montreal Weather
The same slow moving low pressure area that is helping to fuel those storms in the southern US will affect the weather in southern Quebec this week. It will be sunny in Montreal today, but with that same northeast wind and chill in the air. Look for highs near 12C (54F), still below normal. This will be the best day of the week. Low pressure over the western Great Lakes this morning will move eastward and stall over the eastern lakes by Wednesday. It will send clouds on Tuesday followed by rain for the balance of the week. Temperatures under clouds and persistent precipitation will remain chilly, 11 to 14C for highs and 5 to 7C for lows. A few isolated non-severe thunderstorms may make it into southern Ontario, but any severe weather will remain well to our south this week.

A very slow start to spring in southern Quebec

AccuWeather long range forecast map showing a continuation of cold weather for southern Quebec into the start of May and perhaps beyond. This is sort of a winter 2013-2014 hangover!

As expected, we are off to a very slow start this spring across southern Quebec and most of North America. The ice is gone from most rivers and lakes but the water is still very cold and greatly influencing temperature patterns in eastern Canada. I worked outside yesterday and noticed very little is growing or turning green this year. Lots of cold rain, wind and even some snow on the weather map this morning. Montreal managed 11C (52F) on Wednesday, which is below the normal high of 14C (56F). Combine that with cloud cover in the afternoon, and northwest winds up to 50km/h, and it was not too pleasant outdoors.

We start the day with sunshine but breezy and cold at 1C (33F) here on L'Ile Perrot. It will be a dry day with gusty winds and a high of 11C. Clear skies tonight will allow for cold temperatures once again with lows near 0C (32F) in the city but below freezing off island. More sunshine for Friday but through increasing clouds and perhaps a degree or two warmer at 13C (55F). The weekend at this time looks dreary in Montreal with clouds, cool temperatures and showers both days as low pressure crosses the region. We may see some clearing on Sunday. Temperatures will be near 10C (50F) for daytime highs with lows around 2C (36F).

SNOW!
We have some snow around this morning along the lower north shore of Quebec. Snowfall warnings are in effect with 15-25cm possible around Sept Isles. The snow is being caused by low pressure passing off the Atlantic Coast near Nova Scotia. The same system is bringing a cold rain to other portions of the Maritimes.

Seasonal week expected in Montreal

Richelieu River flooding near Sabrevois, Quebec over the weekend. (CBC News)

After 144 days of snow cover here on L'Ile Perrot, the last piece of icy snow melted away from my front lawn this past Saturday. Officially at Trudeau Airport, the end came April 4. I never thought winter would finish this year, but it did and rapidly in the end. Even most of the ice is gone from the rivers and lakes around southern Quebec. I was in Sherbrooke on the weekend and it is amazing just how high and how fast the water on the St Francois River came up last Wednesday. It has since receded but left behind are tons of broken trees lining the river, piles of mud and lots of water logged personal effects sitting in the driveways of residents right along the rivers edge. The clean up will take some time. Currently most rivers are on the way down, even Lake Champlain has stabilized at 100.4 feet, but flooding is still being observed along the New York/Quebec border as well as high water levels in the Richelieu Valley. A flood watch remains in effect for those locations. The forecast does have more rain in it after a rather chilly but pleasant Easter weekend. Expect partial sunshine today with a high near 17C (63F). Clouds thicken early this evening followed by a period of rain overnight and mild lows near 8C (47F). Tuesday will be showery and breezy with the passage of a cold front and a high near 17C. Skies will slowly clear for Wednesday, but it will be colder with high temperatures near 9C (48F).

Tranquil weather allows flood waters to recede in Quebec

The flood waters shown above in Sherbrooke on Wednesday have now receded with roads reopened and residents returning to begin the clean up. (CBC News)

Much quieter weather is on tap for this Easter weekend across southern Quebec as well as southeast Ontario and New England. A cold front is moving across the St. Lawrence Valley early this morning with clouds and an isolated shower or snowflake occurring. Skies will clear out early with sunshine dominating the weather today and Sunday. Temperatures will be cool today, near 8C, and downright cold tonight with lows in the -5 to -10C range. Sunday will be much warmer with highs up to 16C. The good news is the cooler weather has allowed the flood waters in many southern Quebec communities to recede and for residents to begin the clean up. Hard hit cities like Sherbrooke and Lennoxville had the water drop several feet in just a few hours on Thursday.

One waterway that is still on the rise is Lake Champlain which flows north into the Richilieu River. It typically floods later in response to all the flood-waters entering it from the smaller tributaries as well as melting snow in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Early this morning, Lake Champlain at Rouses Point on the Quebec border is at 100.4 feet. Flooding starts at 100 feet. A flood warning is in effect for Lake Champlain, and this water flows north into southern Quebec. A flood watch remains in effect from Urgence Quebec for the Richilieu River as well as several other southern Quebec rivers. The Chaudiere River near Megantic is still on the rise with moderate flooding reported. Otherwise all other rivers are stabilizing with only minor flooding reported including Lake of Two Mountains here in metro Montreal.
The good news is no major rain is expected through Monday with the next precipitation forecast for Tuesday.

Widespread flooding across Quebec and Ontario

Flooding in Sherbrooke. (Sherbrooke Record)

NEW RECORD LOW THIS MORNING FOR MONTREAL
The heavy rain and snow are well off to our east this morning as cold air and high pressure settle into southern Quebec. Between 25-50mm of rain has fallen in the region since late Sunday, the bulk of that coming along a cold front Tuesday afternoon. That front dropped temperatures in a hurry with rain changing to wet snow in Montreal by 5pm on Tuesday. Depending where you were in the metro region you had between 1-5cm of snow. This coming on the heels of a 16C high. Even better is where the temperature is this morning, at -7C, a new record low for Montreal for the date. It has eclipsed a long standing record low of -5C set in 1943. Sunshine will dominate today but it will only make it up to 2C. Warmer weather will return starting tomorrow. The front yesterday was impressive with the temperature at my home on L'Ile Perrot hitting 16.1C at 10:57am. As the front progressed across the city temperatures fell rapidly to 11C in a few minutes, down to 7C within the hour and below freezing by 4pm.

My daughter Maggie LB took the photos above and below of the swollen St Francis & Massawippi Rivers spilling onto the Campus at Bishops University in Lennoxville on Tuesday. The Campus remains closed today.

MAJOR FLOODING
The rain and melting snow have caused widespread flooding across the southern half of the province. Numerous rivers including the St Francis, Yamaska, Chateauguay and Chaudiere and even Lake Champlain are over their banks this morning. Homes, business and many roads are flooded. At last count nearly three dozen roads were inundated or closed in Quebec, mostly across the Townships and Beauce. About 600 people were forced to evacuate in Sherbrooke after the Saint Francis River overflowed into certain sectors of the city. Further downstream conditions were the same in Lennoxville where water poured onto the Campus of Bishops University. Classes and exams were cancelled for the day yesterday and the Campus remains closed today to non residents with students asked to remain in place for now. According to the Mayor of Sherbrooke, the worst is yet to come with more snow melting in the mountains and the water continuing to rise. More of the same in northern Vermont and New York where rising waters have closed many roads, forced evacuations and led to water rescues. In Eastern Ontario the Kemptville Creek and Rideau River are spilling over as well flooding farmland, roads along the waters edge as well as the Rideau Glen golf course. Around Laval and the island of Montreal the St Lawrence, Mille Iles and des Prairies are also on the rise and under a flood watch from Urgence Quebec.

The Massawippi River in Lennoxville. Photos Maggie Lowson-Balena

Colder temperatures today will slow down the melting and runoff, but it is only temporary as the water has to run its course. The good news is no major rainfall is forecast for the short term.