Saturday, 17 January 2015

Storm forecast a tricky one for Montreal

Lakeshore Drive in Dorval on Friday. Another messy and slow January commute in Montreal. (ValleyWX Photo)
There seem to be no easy solutions when it comes to forecasting storms in the St. Lawrence Valley. For reasons too numerous to mention here, this potential Sunday night storm falls under the tricky category. Cold air is well established this morning in southern Quebec, with another -24C (-11F) morning here on L'Ile Perrot. Sunshine will prevail today but it will be cold, no better than -18C (0F) by late in the day. Tonight warmer air will begin flowing into the region as low pressure moves across the western Great Lakes. Sunday will be cloudy, but much warmer with a high of 0C (32F). Another low pressure area will begin to develop along the east coast and slowly move northeast towards New England late Sunday night. This storm will send a surge of moisture inland over Vermont and into southern Quebec into the morning hours Monday. Temperature profiles at this time suggest mostly snow for metro Montreal, a change from 24 hours ago. Best forecast at this time has snow starting late Sunday and lasting into the Monday morning commute in Montreal. I will stick with my initial feeling of 10-15cm of fresh snow for Montreal, much less west of the city and more east and southeast of Montreal, but with the risk of rain mixing in as well for Sherbrooke and the Townships.

So far a Winter Storm Watch has been posted for the Champlain Valley and Vermont with a special weather statement for the Townships. Please keep in mind this forecast is a challenging one with several different scenarios being presented by the forecast models. I will monitor the forecasts and data and provide updates all weekend. Stay warm!

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