Tuesday, 25 August 2015

More sunshine for Montreal - Erika forms in the Atlantic

Monday was a rather warm and muggy day across southern Quebec with temperatures close to 29C (85F). Widely scattered showers and late evening thunderstorms developed along a weak cold front. The precipitation missed L'Ile Perrot with just a trace here, but affected the South Shore and east end of Montreal Island, especially late last evening. This morning we have partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures at 15C (59F). Expect sunshine today with just a slight chance of an afternoon shower and a seasonable high of 25C (77F). Expect very similar conditions for Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center forecast track for tropical storm Erika. Erika may approach Florida by the weekend.
It has been a very quiet tropical season in the Atlantic basin, mostly due to the presence of a strengthening El Nino. This feature alters global air patterns and increases the amount of dust blowing off the African continent as well as increasing wind shear along the favorable growth zones for Atlantic tropical storms.

Those factors mentioned above tend to hinder major development in the Atlantic Basin during El Nino years. That being said, we are in the most favorable months for storms to develop in the Caribbean and Atlantic, August and September. This week we have already watched the rapid development and subsequent  rapid weakening of Hurricane Danny. Today we have tropical storm Erika about 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Erika has 45mph winds and a gradual increase in strength is forecast this week. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the Leeward Islands. Beyond that and looking ahead to the weekend, if Erika can avoid the sheer that destroyed Danny, she may pose a threat to the US southeast. Before the US she will likely affect Puerto Rico and perhaps the Bahamas. This storm will be monitored very closely.

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