Saturday, 3 October 2015

Hurricane Joaquin moves out to sea - high pressure dominates in Montreal

Coastal flooding in Atlantic City, New Jersey on Friday. (Reuters News)
What a difference 24 hours can make in weather forecasting. Computer models had communities up and down the east coast from South Carolina to Nova Scotia in a state of emergency at the prospect of a land falling Joaquin. But now all models are predicting the storm to head out to sea and spare all of us a direct hit. Hurricane Joaquin remains a powerful storm this morning with 125 mph winds located 165 miles (270km) northeast of San Salvador, Bahamas. The storm pounded the northeast Bahamas for the last two days with fierce winds and heavy rain. Damage is extensive in the eastern portion of the Bahamas.

Meanwhile the news is not perfect for the east coast of the US. They are still dealing with a major upper level low over the southeast that is producing historic rainfall. Up to 2 feet of rain has fallen along the North and South Carolina border with more forecast. The rain has produced major flooding in the Carolinas. Along the coast high surf has produced widespread coastal flooding from Massachusetts to North Carolina. The heavy surf is a result of the flow of air around Joaquin and a persistent northeast fetch of air and water off the Atlantic. Strong high pressure located over Quebec is helping deflect Joaquin out to sea but is also producing the pressure gradient that is driving the Atlantic into the coast from the Maritimes south. Flooding is expected to continue throughout the weekend.

The good news for Montreal is the only effects we will see from both Joaquin and the strong low over the southeast is a cool northeast wind up to 50km/h. Montreal and most of southern Quebec can expect nothing but sunshine as high pressure holds all weekend. Temperatures will range from 12 to 14C (52 to 56F) for daytime highs and cool plus 3 to 5C (38 to 41F) for overnight lows through Monday.

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