Warm and humid weekend for Montreal

Heat and humidity will surge into southern Ontario and Quebec this weekend. (AccuWeather)

After a couple of cooler days with lower humidity levels in southern Quebec, the heat will begin to build once again today heading into the weekend. We are starting what is typically the biggest holiday period in Quebec as many take summer vacations. The weather will also be typical for middle July as warm and very humid air invades southern Quebec and Ontario. Today will be sunny but with increasing clouds as a warm front moves east from the Great Lakes, the high should be from 25 to 28C (77 to 82F). Showers and even an isolated thunderstorm will develop overnight and Saturday across eastern Ontario into Quebec and New York as temperatures remain mild overnight at 19C (66F). Saturday will be muggy and warm with showers and thunderstorms and a high near 27C (81F). Sunday and Monday look similar with more scattered storms, warm and humid with highs in the upper 20's.

There is a risk of some severe weather late Sunday and Monday. I understand that I have mentioned this often this summer and seemingly the storms have avoided metro Montreal. They have however affected other portions of southern Quebec, eastern Ontario and northern New England/NY. It is important to remember that thunderstorm activity can be very isolated. That does not diminish the dangers from lightning, hail  and winds. If storms are forecast, or a weather watch or warning is in effect, and you have any outdoor activity planned, be aware of the sky. Also when the thunder roars go indoors. Lightning injuries and fatalities have been on the rise across North America this year.

A break in the humidity for Montreal

NOAA image of Tropical Storm Claudette located well east of Delaware, over the Atlantic Ocean, late Monday.

 Monday was the warmest day of 2015 across southern Quebec and finally featured our third 30C high for the city  this year, 30.1C at Trudeau Airport. Other reporting stations across the region had highs well into the 30's including 32.6C on L'Ile Perrot, 31.2C in Cornwall and St Anicet and 30.6C in Ottawa. Downtown Montreal was scorching with several locations showing mid-afternoon highs greater than 32C (90F) and humidex values close to 40C. Temperatures remained very warm overnight with lows from 21 to 23C (70 to 73F) across metro Montreal. Scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon affected mainly the area from Valleyfield east to Granby and south to the US border. A much more widespread shower and thunderstorm event will develop later today as a cold front slices into the warm and humid air. High temperatures will reach 30C (86F) again today before the front arrives after sunset. Thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight have the potential to produce very heavy rain in a short period of time. Overnight storms have already produced flash flooding across western New York. By Wednesday, expect a break in the high humidity with clearing skies and pleasant highs of 24C (76F) in Montreal. The fair weather will hold into Friday.

Environment Canada forecast track of Tropical Storm Claudette into Newfoundland on Wednesday. 
(Canadian Hurricane Centre)

Tropical Storm Claudette
The third tropical system of the 2015 season formed well east of the Carolina's late Sunday. Claudette developed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. This morning the system is located approximately 500km south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and moving northeast at 20mph. Claudette is expected to slowly weaken and become a post tropical cyclone later today as she heads towards the colder waters around Newfoundland on Wednesday. Gusty winds, a period of steady rain and rough seas will affect the south and east coast of Newfoundland as well as Sable Island, with just some wave action expected elsewhere in eastern Atlantic Canada.

Very warm start to the week in southern Quebec

The annual Valleyfield Regatta hydroplane races in southern Quebec had perfect weather over the weekend. 
(Photo Regates Valleyfield).

It is a grab bag of weather across North America as this El Nino driven summer continues to unfold. Some of the warmest air this summer has streamed into southern Quebec and Ontario over the last few days with daily highs over the weekend in the upper 20's and low 30's. I recorded 31C (88F) on L'Ile Perrot on Sunday, while the typically cooler Trudeau Airport had 29.5C (85F). So officially we are still stuck at two 30C days for summer 2015 in Montreal. It was a dry weekend in Montreal but some rather decent thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds did affect the Gatineau region into southeastern Ontario late Sunday afternoon.

Today will be another warm and humid day with scattered afternoon thunderstorms and a high near 30C (86F). Tonight will be warm and humid with lows in the low 20's (70F). On Tuesday more sunshine and warm highs will fade behind afternoon clouds as a cold front arrives and cools us down for Wednesday. More showers and some thunder are possible along that front Tuesday evening. The high on Tuesday will be 30C (86F) for Montreal, lowering to 25C (77F) for Wednesday with clearing skies.

July snow stunned travelers along the higher elevations of the eastern Sierra Nevada mountains in Northern California on Friday, including those at Tioga Pass shown above. (CalTrans Photo.)

Weather features over the weekend included big thunderstorms across the southern Prairies with large hail, strong winds and even a few isolated tornadoes. Most of the country remained rather warm on Sunday with more heat forecast to start the week. It remains dangerously dry across portions of western Canada. Despite the fact it is July, an upper level low over northern California, produced some July snow across the eastern Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountains. Look for more bizarre weather across North America as the El Nino off the South American Pacific coast continues to strengthen into the fall.

Dry weather into the weekend for Montreal

Despite the cooler and wetter than normal summer in Montreal to date, people continue to enjoy the outdoors like those sailing on Lac St. Louis in Lachine on Wednesday. (ValleyWX)

 Despite the cloud cover across southern Quebec today, it looks like we are in for a relatively dry stretch of weather through Sunday. I say relatively, because as the heat and humidity builds over the weekend, there will be a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The main storm system will pass well south of the region across Pennsylvania with clouds stretching north into the St. Lawrence Valley. At this time most of the precipitation will remain across southern New York and Vermont. Temperatures will be at or just slightly below normal into the weekend for Montreal with highs of 24 to 28C (76 to 83F) and lows of 16 to 19C (60 to 66F).

The weather pattern shown above that has chilled our summer in Montreal so far, is expected to continue. (Almanac.com)

COOL SUMMER
The trend of hot and dry weather in western Canada and cooler wet weather across the US northeast, Quebec and Ontario, looks like it will prevail into the middle of the of the month at the very least. The map above shows the pattern that has been with us for most of May, June and July. With the polar jet riding high in the west and sinking in the east, this summer is starting to look like a typical El Nino one. In between the cool air to the north and sultry air to the south, lots of rain and thunderstorms will continue from the southern plains into the northeast just clipping southern Quebec. While temperatures are not terrible, this is not shaping up to be a hot summer. To date only two 30C highs have been recorded at Trudeau Airport (YUL) this year. In addition to the cooler weather it has been wet with over 150mm (6 inches) of rain in Montreal since June 1st.

Elevated humidity today for Ontario & Quebec

Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase in southern Ontario and Quebec today. (AccuWeather)

It was a warm, muggy Monday in Montreal with the temperature creeping up to 31C (88F) here on L'Ile Perrot, 28C (83F) officially at the typically cooler Trudeau Airport. The day featured sunshine but with plenty of high haze and smoke from the western wildfires.

Moisture from the southern US along with an advancing cold front from Ontario will bring an increase in clouds today and eventually some showers and thunderstorms. While severe weather is not expected, some of the storms later this evening may briefly have some heavy rainfall. The high today will be very warm around 30C (86F) for Montreal. We are starting the morning muggy and warm already at 22C (72F). Tonight any showers and storms will end by daybreak with clearing skies and less humid Wednesday. The overnight low will be near 20C (68F) with a high Wednesday in the sunshine of 24C (76F).

The S-64 Air Crane from Montana is helping fight fires in Saskatchewan.
 (Global News)

Western Fires
Major wildfires continue to burn across northern Saskatchewan, Alberta and the Northwest Territories. Over 112 active fires are reported in hard hit Saskatchewan with at least 25 out of control. Cooler weather has helped firefighters, but it remains very dry and winds are forecast to increase today. On Monday over 1200 Canadian Armed Forces personal were added to the battle along with crews from South Dakota, Ontario and New Brunswick. Also pressed into action was the largest water helicopter in North America, the S-64 Air Crane helicopter out of Montana. According to officials the situation remains critical for many communities including La Ronge. Over 10,000 residents across the north remain away from their homes. Smoke continues to drift far to the south and east affecting air quality across the central and eastern portions of North America.

Warm & humid weather on tap for Montreal

A NASA image taken on July 4 shows smoke from the western Canadian wildfires spreading south and east into the US and Great Lakes. (The fires are the red dots while the thin, white almost translucent clouds are the smoke). 

Summer weather will finally make an appearance in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario this week. We may even record our second 30C high temperature of the year to date here in Montreal. High pressure today is trying to clear skies out, but a stubborn area of haze and smoke from the western wildfires is creating a hazy and milky sky. The temperature in Montreal is still quite warm, pushing 27C (81F). More hazy sunshine is forecast Monday with increasing humidity and a warm high of 30C (86F). Tuesday will be warm and humid with thunderstorms and a high of 29C (85F) in Montreal after a muggy low of 22C (72F). Wednesday looks the same at this point.

Strong thunderstorms brought some relief  from the high heat to Calgary but also produced tons of hail and flooding. (Photo Jim Wells via Twitter/TWN)

Western Fires
Intense wildfires are burning thousands of acres of land across a wide area of northern Saskatchewan, the Northwest Territories and parts of Alberta. Over 12,000 have been forced to evacuate especially in hard hit northern Saskatchewan near La Ronge. Western Canada has had a very hot an dry weather pattern for several weeks now. There was a break in the hot weather yesterday with a strong cold front producing heavy thunderstorms. There were reports of large hail, flooding and even tornadoes from southern Alberta including Calgary into southeast Saskatchewan. More storms are forecast today from Manitoba into the Dakotas and northwest Ontario. But the area that needs the rain the most remains very dry. Over 570 wildfires have been reported in Saskatchewan this year, nearly three times the amount reported last year at this time. The fires have destroyed nearly 40 homes. Smoke from the fires has spread acorns western Canada prompting numerous air quality advisories. The winds aloft have carried the smoke into the northern and central plains of the US and has even spread east into the Great Lakes and southern Quebec.

Just ahead - our best stretch of weather for summer 2015

The jet stream will remain south of Montreal allowing periods of cooler air to move into the region on a regular basis. (AccuWeather.com)

That was one wet and miserable Canada Day across southern Ontario and Quebec. Heavy showers and thunderstorms put down 10-20mm of rain across the Montreal metro region, this falling on top of the nearly 140mm that occurred in June.

Other areas had even more rainfall with 41mm in Kemptville, Ontario in less than 24 hours, 53mm at Val Cartier and 72mm in Charlevoix. South of the border flooding was reported in Vermont and northern New York after more than 50mm fell in just a few hours. Burlington, Vermont has had over 1 foot (300mm) of rainfall since mid-May. The rain did not dampen the spirits of those who attended the main Canada Day events in Montreal and Ottawa, but many other municipalities decided to postpone theirs until the weekend.

We are now going to enter what will be our best stretch of summer weather this season. It should not be hard to reach that goal as most of June was damp and cool. Montreal had only two days in June officially above 27C (80F) and that was just barely at 27.1C. We have had only one 30C day this year. The high heat has been confined to western Canada and the southern US, and now even western Europe. High pressure will build into the region today and remain with us through the weekend. Temperatures will start off below normal today with a high of 23C (73F) but will rise into the high 20's over the weekend. By early next week daytime highs may push 30C (86F). It should remain sunny and dry through Sunday.