Wild Victoria Day weather across the country

Strong winds, rain and snow have made for a miserable holiday weekend in Manitoba. (CTV NEWS Manitoba)

May is often one of the most active weather months of the year as what is left of the winter cold in the Northern Hemisphere battles it out with the advancing warm and humid weather from the deep south. This weekend is a perfect example of that battle and the weather is distributes over North America as the atmosphere tries to balance itself. While southern Quebec is enjoying a peaceful, sun filled long holiday weekend with warm highs over 27C (80F) other portions of the country are not so lucky with wind, frost and even snow.

A strong low pressure area has been splitting the country in half as it moves from Colorado towards James Bay. To the west strong winds and heavy rain and wet snow have been reported from eastern Saskatchewan into northwest Ontario. Winnipeg is reporting snow this morning and a temperature of -1C (30F). Widespread frost was reported in Saskatchewan. Winds have been very strong across Manitoba, in excess of 80km/h with numerous reports of trees and power lines down. The same storm has a cold front trailing from it that will eventually cut through Montreal and the St. Lawrence Valley over the next 36 hours. That front produced lots of severe weather from Texas to the Dakotas on Saturday and again Sunday. Numerous tornadoes and large hail were reported with widespread damage. More strong thunderstorms  are forecast from the Great Lakes to the Midwest today.

A spectacular shot of a tornado near Elmer, Oklahoma on Saturday. Storm chasers caught the storm as it came dangerously close to a field of cows. No injuries were reported despite major damage in Oklahoma. (TVN Weather.com)

THUNDERSTORMS & COOLER
Montreal will remain between the Colorado low and a cool marine air mass just to our east on this Victoria Day Monday. We can expect a sunny and warm day with temperatures as warm as 30C (86F) in the southwest St. Lawrence Valley. Highs will be much cooler as you head east and southeast. Tonight the first of two cold fronts will produce showers and thunderstorms with a mild, humid low around 18C (65F). On Tuesday more showers and thunderstorms are forecast as a second cold front moves across Ontario and Quebec. The high Tuesday will be 24C (76F). The balance of the week will see clearing skies but much cooler with daytime highs below normal, only near 17C (63F). Temperatures will begin to warm once again by next weekend.

A mixed bag of weather for Victoria Day weekend

Gusty thunderstorms on Tuesday produced localized heavy rain (10-20mm) and even small hail as they swept across southern Quebec around 1pm. Winds gusted over 75km/h in Montreal. This storm was moving through St.Laurent (ValeyWX Photo)

After a windy and chilly Wednesday that saw below normal high temperatures of only 15 to 17C (59 to 63F) in southern Quebec, we can expect a much warmer Thursday. High pressure will dominate the weather in southern Quebec through late Friday. It was a chilly start to the day this morning with lows down to 3.8C (38F) here on L'Ile Perrot. A frost advisory was in effect for the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, as well as portions of the Adirondacks, Green Mountains and also eastern Ontario, but there was no frost here at my home on L'Ile Perrot.

The upcoming Victoria Day long weekend is looking just ok. A warm front will produce some showers late Friday into Saturday. Most of Saturday will turn out dry but with plenty of cloud cover. By Sunday warmer and dryer air will be in place. High temperatures will range from 19 to 23C  (66 to 73F) through the remainder of the week. By Sunday we may nudge the temperature up to 24 or 25C (76 to 77F). At this time holiday Monday looks decent, but a rather vigorous cold front will produce showers and perhaps a thunderstorm by late in the day and into the overnight period.

Thunderstorms, snowstorms & tropical storms

Thunderstorms develop over L'Ile Perrot on Saturday, May 9, in the first warm and humid air of the season. 
(ValleyWX Photo)

Update: Monday, May 11 : Cooler weather with much needed rainfall is occurring over southern Quebec this morning. As a result the open fire burn ban has been lifted for now. The temperature has dropped from 26C Sunday around noon to 8C this morning. What a difference a day makes. The previous blog entry is below.

We had a very active weather day across North America Sunday as a strong spring storm moved across the central plains of the US. To the east, warm and humid air fired up thunderstorms from Texas to the Great Lakes, Ontario and southern Quebec. A dangerous outbreak of severe weather with many tornadoes is occurring from Texas into parts of Iowa and South Dakota. Meanwhile to the west, heavy wet snow (over 1 foot) and strong winds with blizzard conditions affected the western Dakotas. Travel was not advised in western South Dakota on Sunday.

Montreal remains on the northern edge of the warm and humid air. We managed to reach 28C (83F) on Saturday before scattered thunderstorms swept the region. As is the fickle nature of thunderstorms, I measured only 0.4mm of rain Saturday on L'Ile Perrot, while Trudeau Airport had 9.8mm. Some areas of the city and Laval has even more as the storms were much stronger in those locations. More storms were expected Sunday as a frontal system sags south into southern Quebec. Sunday was the last really warm day for a week or so as we hit 25C (77F). Cooler air and rain moved in overnight with a raw, chilly and rainy Monday expected with highs only near 10C (50F). On Tuesday more showers and thunderstorms are forecast along a warm front with a high of 23C (73F). Things should clear out by Wednesday.

MAY? A South Dakota DOT camera shows the heavy snow and strong winds over the western Dakotas this morning. Travel is not advised in heavy snow and 50mph winds.

The warmth this week was very sudden and confined mostly to eastern Ontario and southern Quebec as we had some of the warmest temperatures in Canada. On Friday, Montreal recorded a record high of  28.8C (the previous record was 28.7 in 2013), Sherbrooke 28.4C (27.2 in 2007), and St Anicet a scorching 31.2C (29.8 in 2013).

As if all this weather was not enough, an early season tropical storm developed off the South Carolina coast this week and moved into Myrtle Beach early Sunday morning. Tropical storm Ana has 60mph winds as well as 2-4 inches of rainfall to the east of her track. Heavy surf is pounding the North and South Carolina coast this morning as the storm slowly weakens and drifts inland today.

Crazy spring with hot weather for some & snow for others

Another May snowstorm for Edmonton. (Edmonton Journal)

While Montreal and most of eastern Canada finally bask in some spring and summer warmth, it was a far different story across central and northern Alberta. Heavy wet snow fell in Edmonton with as much as 20cm reported. The snow will not last very long as warmer weather is forecast by this weekend. Meanwhile the warm weather continues in Quebec. Strong high pressure will produce sunshine through Friday as it slides southeast of the region. Temperatures are forecast to reach 28 to 30C today and Friday. By the weekend more humid air will arrive as a frontal system moves east from the Great Lakes. It will remain warm and become increasingly muggy with showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Cooler air will arrive next week along with showers. Conditions remain very dry across the entire area with burn bans in effect for Quebec, New York and Vermont. No outdoor burning should be done anywhere in the region as the fire risk remains extreme. Several active fires are burning in Quebec and New York.

The amazing WC-130J Hurricane Hunter aircraft on display in Halifax last weekend. (Kalin Mitchell/CBC)

 Tropical Update
The first tropical system of the season is becoming better organized off the southeast US coast. A United States Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into the system later today, so we should know more on the strength of the low pressure soon. If this storm develops further (winds in excess of 39mph) it would be named Ana. Right now it looks like a rainy and windy weekend for the North and South Carolina coastlines.

Speaking of the Hurricane Hunters they are in the middle of their east coast tour visiting several communities which this year included Halifax, Nova Scotia. The goal is to show the public exactly what they do to help with the all important hurricane forecasts as well as to raise awareness of the risks from these storms. On Saturday, May 2, two aircraft including the mighty WC-130J Hurricane Hunter were at Stanfield International Airport in Halifax. Also on hand were officials from both The US National Hurricane Center and The Canadian Hurricane Center. Over 1100 people stopped by for the open house. I wished so much that I could have attended, but sadly it was not a possibility.

Dry weather leads to a surge in Quebec forest fires

A dry spring in many portions of central and western Quebec has lead to a rapid increase in forest fires. A burn ban remains in effect across all provincial forests. (CBC)

A cold and very dry winter in southwestern Quebec and the rapid onset of warm weather has lead to an increase in forest and brush fires across the entire region. On Monday strong southwest winds gusted close to 80km/h in The St. Lawrence and Richelieu Valley's. The winds combined with very low relative humidity readings, and in many cases human error,  helped produce dozens of brush fires from eastern Ontario into upstate New York and Vermont. Most of the fires were contained thanks to the great work by local firefighters, and damage was limited. The strong winds also toppled some trees in and around Montreal.

The fire threat has been lowered in Quebec today from extreme to very high by SOPFEU. It is expected to remain that way for the balance of this week. An outdoor burning ban remains in effect in all Quebec forests province wide. As of this morning 36 active fires were reported in the province, with a total of 114 so far in 2015. The total land area affected is in excess of 140 hectares (350 acres). Those numbers represent a significant increase from the 10 year average of 84 fires and 72 hectares. A burn ban is also in effect in the entire City of Ottawa.

WARM Weather
On Monday, temperatures soared to 28C (83F) in Montreal, well above the normal of 17C (63F) but short of the record set in 1944 of 30C (86F). Record high temperatures were set in St Anicet at 28C as well as St Hubert. A weak cold front produced about 2mm of rain overnight in Montreal but sunshine has returned today. It will remain sunny for the balance of the work week, with warm highs in the 20's and lows near 12C. By Friday we may even flirt with 30C in Montreal. This means the fire risk will remain very high and no outdoor burning is advised anywhere in the region, including Quebec, Ontario and New England.

Meanwhile the tropics are showing some signs of life with perhaps a system developing off the Florida coast by the end of the week. It is early in the season, but not unheard of for such a storm to develop. If it does it would be Ana, but at this time it has a less than 40% chance of happening.

From winter to summer in one weekend in southern Quebec

(Video from Steve Goyet, TWN & Youtube)

Forget about spring, summer is here. The warmest weather so far in 2015 will surge into Montreal today on gusty southwest winds. Sunshine with a high near 27C (81F) is forecast. Clouds will increase tonight as a cold front approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight with a low of 15C (59F). The balance of the week looks fair and warm.

It was a spectacular sunny and warm weekend in Montreal with highs around 26C (79F) both days. The warm and dry weather over the weekend produced numerous dust devils especially Saturday. I witnessed a small one on L'Ile Perrot on Sunday. These tight, rotating columns of air are short lived but can generate winds in excess of 80km/h picking up dust and debris. One whipped up near Lanoraie, northeast of Montreal on Saturday and was captured by Steve Goyet (above).

Today's sunshine and low relative humidity along with southwest winds up to 60km/h will produce ideal weather for brush fires. There are lots of dead leaves and other dry vegetation available as fuels and therefore a special weather statement for an elevated fire risk has been posted. It is in effect for most of the northeast US and New England. While we have no such weather warnings in eastern Ontario or southern Quebec, the exact same conditions prevail. SOPFEU, who monitors forest fires in Quebec has posted a moderate to extreme fire risk for southern Quebec. All outdoor burning should be avoided today.

For more info on dust devils click HERE.

Risk of dust devils today for southern Quebec

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT has been issued from Environment Canada for the possibility of dust devils in southern Quebec today.

What? Yes you read it right, dust devils. It sounds more like a minor league baseball team as opposed to a weather term, but it is. Late last April I was working outside raking leaves when a rapidly rotating column of dirt and debris went down the street adjacent to my home. It was very visible and  moved quickly with a swoosh, swaying the trees and blasting the street surface with dust and dirt left over from the winter. This was basically a dust devil or thermal. They are rather harmless, but can, in the right conditions, blow over items such as awnings, umbrellas or tents. These rotating columns of air are typically small in nature, no more than 10 to 50 feet wide. They occur just about anywhere but are very common in the southwestern US and desert locations.

From WeatherStreet.com

They do occur in Montreal, particularly during the spring months. Typically they occur on days like today, strong sunshine, warm and dry. The sun rapidly warms the surface of the earth which causes rolls of air to be displaced. These parcels often get tilted and rotate away. At this time of year there is so much dust and dirt lying around from the winter that is is picked up by the column of air making it visible. They typically last seconds, blowing themselves out. The can reach up to 30 metres (100 feet) in the air and produce winds in excess of 80km/h.

You can read the official statement from Environment Canada HERE.

Other than that, enjoy the sunny, warm weekend as temperatures finally act like May. Highs in southern Quebec will be 22 to 24C (72 to 76F) this weekend with lows of 8 to 10C (48 to 50F). Enjoy!